Why Obama Will Win

16 July 2008

By TJ Madison

Unlike a horse race, you have much better odds betting on the winner of a political race. Let’s face it, after the primaries only two candidates have chance of winning- a Republican or a Democrat. So you have a 50% chance of getting it right. Add the fact that if you have no stake in who wins or loses the race, no ties to either candidate or the ideology of the candidate you can make the odds even better. Because you’re judgment isn’t clouded with emotion.

Just watch the cable news shows, Republican talking heads will tell you how McCain will win, just as Democrat talking heads will tell you how Obama will win. Well, half of them will be right. Half will have egg on there face. But I’ll bet both wouldn’t bet money on it. Just like I wouldn’t bet money if my favorite team were in the World Series. I know I couldn’t be objective.

However, in this race I don’t have to worry about that. Why? As limited-Government minded Jeffersonians, it’s a lose-lose situation for us.

Now, to be totally fair, I’ll acknowledge that as long as I’ve been politically active, I’ve always considered myself Right of center. However, I’ve never been afraid to distance myself from popular positions of the Right if I didn’t agree with them. Unlike most of the Republicans in leadership positions these days, I’ll always make a decision based on liberty and the Constitution. Ala Ron Paul.

Unfortunately, no Ron Paul types to choose from. Just two different brands of Socialism.

So how do I know Obama’s Socialism will be the one to triumph? I can only make this prediction based on what I’ve seen the American people vote for in the recent past. Particularly the last five Presidential Elections.

And just like those, the way these two candidates appear on television will the major factor of who comes out on top. The other key factors, of course, will be the perception of the economy and if the American people have a positive or negative feeling about the state of the war with Iraq.

Look at the 2004 Election. John Kerry had two of the three. The media beat down the economy, and Americans didn’t like how the war was going. However, he was awful on television. He came across as a pompous ass. And he lost the election.

Go back to 2000. People were generally happy with the markets, but Gore came across as a pretentious ass-clown. And lost the election.

Further back to 1996. Bob Dole appeared to be a bitter angry old man who thought it was his anointed time. He lost.

Right now, McCain is on the losing end of the three major factors that will decide this election.

• Americans are tired of a war that they see as Republican responsibility.
• The Stock Market is down and the dollar is weak as a Republican sits in the White House.
• Obama is a better speaker and looks better on television then McCain.

Trust me. The media will portray him as a Rock Star, and the uninformed voter will eat it up. It will be they’re very own version of political American Idol. The only difference is they’ll have to leave the house to vote.

Now, McCain’s war hero status and experience should count for something, right? Well, it didn’t matter for Bob Dole and George Bush 41 who had both of those qualities.

So McCain can only hope the American Idol crowd stays home.

However, Obama would then bring out his secret weapon: Remember while campaigning in Oregon, Obama said, “We’ve traveled... to 57 States with 1 to go, Alaska and Hawaii, I really wanted to go to, but my staff , really could not justify it!” (Article continues Below)

That’s 60 States! He’ll get Electoral votes for ten more states then McCain. So how can he lose!

I’m not saying it’s right, but unless something huge comes out of his closet, put your money on Obama.

TJ Madison is a self-described Jeffersonian Republican living in the People's Republic of Wisconsin.